Real estate news

The housing market in Italy is far from being in crisis, with trades that continue to run at a rapid pace and a 2019 forecast of further improvement. So far the good news. The other side of the coin is that our country, albeit growing in terms of transactions, remains the bottom of the Big Five of European real estate and that the prices of housing still do not rise. The real turning point, on the front of quotations, still can not be seen. And again: the best performing cities in terms of price stability in 2018 are not only Milan and Rome, but also Florence, Venice and two new entries such as Rimini and Pisa.

The outline of the complex state of health of Italian and European real estate is the European Outlook 2019 of Scenari Immobiliari, which will be announced to the public with the opening of the Forum of Forecasts and Strategies on Friday 14 September in Santa Margherita Ligure.

Tail light

In terms of real estate turnover, the Italian gap with competitors is always wider. "Starting from 2014, Europe grows by 29.2% and, compared to the previous positive peak of 2007, by 10% - explains Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari -. On the other hand, Italy's recovery is still immature, with respect to 2014 increasing the volume of turnover by 21.2%, but remains down compared to 2007 by about 3%, still fragile in terms of nominal average prices ». Focusing on the residential sector, France is leading the rise in real estate turnover with + 15.1% in 2018, a real exploit that brings Paris to levels of average prices now practically unaffordable by families looking for a home in the French capital.

The forecasts for 2019 are a further + 7.7% of turnover, while house prices have increased by an average of 4.9% in 2018 and are expected to increase by 3% in 2019. Germany follows closely, with an increase of 10.5% in 2018, an estimate of 8.8% for the next year and a 5.8% increase in residential prices in 2018 (after + 8.8% in 2017) and a 2.9% in 2019. Spain is also very good, where the 2018 turnover is up 9.9% (after + 11.6% in 2017) and the 2019 estimate is a further + 8.1%, with prices of homes grew 5.3% in 2017, 4.6% this year and 5.2% estimated for next year, thus leading to the future rise of European quotations.

Italy, although with positive data, is the least fast: real estate turnover 2018 grows by 5.3%, 2019 is estimated at + 4.8%, but house prices languish: -0.2% in 2017, -0.1% in terms of forecast at the end of 2018, in absolute stability in 2019.

The reasons for the delay

Why does our country not follow the European recovery in the residential sector? "First of all, 80% of the market is a housing improvement market, but if families do not find a good quality home they do not buy - explains Breglia -. And what they buy, since there is practically no new development in Italy, is of low quality and undergoes an important discount, so that prices do not go back ". New homes, excluding Milan, have virtually disappeared in all the cities.

Reference: ilsole24ore